Europe Eyes Southeast Asia Amid China-US Tensions

- Europe aims to enhance trade and political ties with Southeast Asia. - Motivated by China's military assertiveness and US tariff threats, Europe ramps up its engagement efforts. On June 16, 2025, CNBC reported that Europe is intensifying efforts to strengthen trade and political relationships with Southeast Asia. This move comes as China's military assertiveness in the region and the threat of US tariffs create an opening for European engagement. However, analysts note Europe significantly lags behind China and the United States, despite its diplomatic overtures. This lag is evident in trade volume and overall influence in Southeast Asia, particularly as Southeast Asian nations tend to prioritize economic ties. Moreover, Europe currently lacks the comprehensive trade deals and substantial presence necessary to compete effectively with the two dominant powers. At the 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue, French President Emmanuel Macron advocated for deeper cooperation between Europe and the Indo-Pacific, citing the erosion of global alliances and framing China's military activities as a threat to international stability. Despite this push, experts like Bob Herrera-Lim from Teneo emphasize that while Europe shows interest in arms sales and aims to access Southeast Asia's natural resources for its green and digital transitions, these interests alone are insufficient without stronger economic foundations. Herrera-Lim noted that Southeast Asian nations primarily build relationships on economic ties. Although Europe has secured trade deals with individual countries like Singapore and Vietnam, broader negotiations for an EU-ASEAN free trade agreement have stalled for years. Céline Pajon from Ifri acknowledged that the EU needs to make more progress, stressing that it must build its presence and investment in the region. In 2024, China was Southeast Asia's largest trading partner, with trade valued at $982.3 billion, followed by the US with $476.8 billion. Europe's trade with the region amounted to €258.7 billion (approximately $299.7 billion), and this figure is not showing an upward trend. Highlighting the primacy of economic benefits, Herrera-Lim suggested that Southeast Asian nations would quickly engage if China further opened its domestic markets, regardless of political considerations. Despite these challenges, Lizza Bomassi from the European Union Institute for Security Studies argues Europe offers a distinct value proposition, highlighting its offer of stable partnerships focused on areas like energy security, green infrastructure, and digital governance, crucially without resorting to power politics. Pajon also suggested that Southeast Asia could leverage the EU to diversify its partnerships, thereby reducing its dependency on China and the US. Such a move could also potentially increase the diplomatic costs for China if regional disputes escalate. However, many view Europe's influence more as a "soft defense shield" providing a diplomatic buffer, rather than a hard military power, and it does not yet offer the economic impetus that Southeast Asia primarily seeks. As of June 16, 12:00 UTC, Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $1,895, with a 3.2% increase in 24-hour trading volume, according to CoinMarketCap.