Polymarket Whales Bet $124 Million Ahead of Fed Rate Decision

- Large-scale investors placed last-minute bets before the Federal Reserve's July meeting. - Diverging strategies showcased the speculative nature of prediction markets. Whale activity surged on Polymarket in the hours before the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on July 29–30, 2025. This intense speculation occurred even though market odds overwhelmingly favored no change, standing at 97% for the central bank to maintain its current rate range of 4.25%-4.5%. On July 30, Mitrade reported that the July Fed decision market on Polymarket became one of its most active, with trading volumes surpassing $124 million. Large-scale investors, or "whales," displayed contrasting trading strategies as they placed significant bets on both likely and improbable outcomes. One notable trader, "SaylorMC," wagered $24,518.25 on a 25-basis-point rate cut, an outcome considered highly unlikely with only a 3% probability. Although the wager could have yielded up to $621,000, "SaylorMC" has a recent history of losses. Similarly, another whale backed this rate-cut scenario and acquired 718,590 shares. In contrast, other whales such as "bobe2" and "Spice" focused on more conservative plays, aligning with the 97% probability that the rate would remain stable. "bobe2," who has a record of 554 correct predictions, invested $2.25 million on no rate change to seek small profits once the market resolved. Meanwhile, "Spice," who has earned over $176,000 across 51 markets, had initially placed $1.3 million on rates holding steady. On July 30, Foresight News reported, citing data from Lookonchain, that this bet had since grown to $1.6 million. This diverging activity highlights the speculative nature of prediction markets, where investors employ various strategies ranging from high-risk wagers on outsized rewards to safer bets on more predictable gains. As the July market closes, focus shifts to the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, for which early Polymarket odds already indicate a 56% likelihood of a 25-basis-point rate cut. The Federal Reserve’s July interest rate decision ultimately resolved the market. Supporting details on the trading activity had been provided by AInvest on July 29 and CryptoSlate on July 25. According to CoinMarketCap on July 30, Ethereum (ETH) was trading at $2,204 at 12:00 UTC, and its 24-hour trading volume had increased by 3.1%.