CFOs: Tariffs Drive 33% of 2025 Inflation

- CFOs say tariffs explain one-third of this year’s inflation. - Major brands pass rising import costs to U.S. consumers. On September 24, 2025, Cryptopolitan reported that a CFO survey from Duke University, in collaboration with the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta, identifies tariffs as the primary cause for about one-third of inflationary price increases in 2025. According to the survey, this year's 2.9% inflation rate could have been closer to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target without the added burden of tariffs. The findings show that firms are transferring the higher costs of imported goods to their customers, which drives up prices across many industries. Survey participants project that tariffs will continue to account for about 25% of price increases into 2026. Leading corporations, including Walmart, Target, Nike, Hasbro, and Procter & Gamble, have confirmed they plan to pass on tariff-induced costs. Across industries, firms expect average prices to increase by 3.9% this year, and tariffs are directly responsible for 1.3 percentage points of that increase. The impact is particularly acute in tariff-sensitive categories. For example, coffee prices jumped 4% in August after the U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports. This one-month increase was the sharpest spike in 14 years, pushing the annual rise in coffee prices to nearly 21%. Similarly, tomato prices rose 4% in August after the government placed a 17% tariff on imports from Mexico. While these price surges alarm consumers, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has described the effect on consumer prices as more moderate and slower than first expected. However, Powell cautioned that the full impact may not yet be evident. He also noted that tariffs have reversed a 25-year trend of declining goods prices. Federal Reserve policymakers remain divided on the issue. Some, such as recently appointed member Stephen Miran, suggest that exporting nations might absorb a larger share of the tariff burden. This view contrasts with data showing a 0.3% increase in import prices in August, a figure that highlights the strain on upstream supply chains. Business sentiment reflects this strain. The survey revealed that tariffs and trade policy remain the top concern for CFOs for the third consecutive quarter, despite a modest improvement in overall optimism. Executives who cited tariffs as a primary worry expressed more pessimism about their companies' prospects and the broader economic outlook. This reveals the toll that rising costs have taken on business confidence.