XRP Nears $2.75 Test as SEC ETF Decisions Loom

- XRP faces a $2.75 support test ahead of October, and $2.81 is a significant resistance level. - Institutional inflows from potential SEC ETF approvals could drive prices toward $3.62 if resistance breaks. XRP’s price faces a pivotal test at $2.75 ahead of October. As the SEC prepares to decide on spot ETF applications, institutional inflows are coming into sharp focus. Analysts have pinpointed $2.75 as a strong support level and $2.81 as short-term resistance. Breaking above $2.81 could kick-start a 30% rally toward $3.62, while losing $2.75 may trigger a decline to $2.00. According to on-chain analytics firm Santiment on September 28, 2025, investors have accumulated 1.58 billion XRP near $2.75, underscoring robust demand at this level. However, a supply wall at $2.81 presents a potential obstacle for sustained bullish momentum. The timing is critical as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) faces imminent deadlines throughout October for multiple XRP spot ETF applications. The scheduled decisions include Grayscale on October 18, 21Shares on October 19, and Bitwise on October 20. Subsequent deadlines are set for Canary Capital on October 23, WisdomTree on October 24, and finally, both Franklin Templeton and CoinShares on October 25. Analysts suggest approvals could trigger $5–$8 billion in institutional inflows within the first month. This influx would heighten demand, adding to the existing XRP futures open interest that now exceeds $1 billion. While October has historically been challenging for XRP, data shows that the fourth quarter often delivers strong performance. Past cycles in 2017, 2023, and 2024 featured significant rallies, particularly in November, giving some hope despite typical October volatility. The dwindling supply of XRP on exchanges adds complexity to the outlook. A potential “supply shock” could occur if institutional investors aggressively allocate capital, elevating prices in an increasingly illiquid market. Still, others warn of a “sell the news” scenario, where ETF approvals ignite short-term enthusiasm but lead to eventual profit-taking. According to CoinMarketCap, XRP was trading at $2.796 as of 15:13 UTC on September 28. Its 24-hour trading volume has seen a 0.686% uptick, while investors closely monitor price action and regulatory developments as this pivotal moment for XRP unfolds.