XRP Risks $1 Breakdown as Triangle Pattern Warning Grows

- Descending triangle pattern signals 50%-70% odds of a bearish outcome. - Positive fundamentals like an SEC settlement or ETF approval could counteract bearish risks. XRP's price is testing key support as it forms a descending triangle. On July 1, 2025, Cointelegraph reported that this bearish pattern historically leads to declines more than half the time. Analysts suggest this structure could lead XRP to either a significant breakdown or a bullish breakout, depending on technical and fundamental factors. Key price levels under scrutiny include the $1.80-$2.00 support range and potential targets of $3.35 or $1. On July 1, Cointelegraph further reported that XRP has repeatedly tested the $1.80-$2.00 support area without significant bounces. This price action heightens the likelihood of a breakdown. A decisive fall below this support zone could push XRP’s price toward $1, which aligns with the asset’s aggregated realized price. Anecdotal data suggests that descending triangles following an uptrend result in breakdowns approximately 54%-70% of the time. However, not all perspectives point to bearish scenarios. Some analysts, including traders Mikybull Crypto and Gordon, interpret the same structure as a bullish falling wedge. They argue that a breakout above the downward resistance could propel XRP’s price to an immediate technical target of $2.48. In an optimistic case, the price could reach $3.35. A drop below $2.08 would invalidate this bullish outlook and reinforce the bearish narrative. Fundamental factors may also significantly influence the outcome. Analysts highlight that a favorable resolution in the ongoing SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit could act as a bullish catalyst. Additionally, speculation about an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval provides optimism among traders. However, these factors are external to the technical setup. For upward momentum to materialize, these events must align with a breakout above the downtrend. In the short term, XRP’s derivatives data supports bearish sentiment. Decreasing open interest in derivatives markets suggests that traders are closing their positions in anticipation of a potential price decline. If the descending triangle confirms a breakdown, forecasts project a possible 41% drop to approximately $1.18. According to CoinMarketCap, XRP (XRP) was trading at $2.182 as of 15:15 UTC on July 1. This price marks a 0.088% change in the past 24 hours. Over the same period, XRP’s 24-hour trading volume increased by approximately 126.202%.