XRP Faces 2025 Challenges: Long-Term Holders Lose Faith

- Long-term holders show fading optimism in XRP’s latest rally. - Weak BTC pairing and rising rivals dim prospects of historic returns. Is XRP’s 2025 rally a repeat of 2017’s historic rise or a shadow of its past? According to a Cointelegraph report on September 4, 2025, while some draw comparisons to 2017, significant market differences suggest a repeat of its 11,900% gains is unlikely. Several key factors fuel this skepticism, including shifts in long-term holder sentiment, weaker performance against Bitcoin, and a more competitive landscape. The report noted that long-term XRP holders demonstrate reduced conviction during the current rally compared to 2017, citing Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) data that shows sentiment has transitioned from “Euphoria-Greed” in 2017 to “Belief-Denial” in 2025. This data suggests holders are hesitating and questioning the rally’s sustainability. This sentiment aligns more closely with the 2021 market top than with XRP’s parabolic 2017 rise, when holder conviction remained robust throughout. In addition, XRP’s performance against Bitcoin presents a significant contrast to its earlier bull run. The XRP/BTC trading pair currently sits approximately 90% below its 2017 peak and has entered a long-term distribution zone. In 2017, XRP achieved a staggering 3,700% surge against Bitcoin, which strengthened its dollar value performance. By contrast, XRP in 2025 has struggled to show similar strength against Bitcoin. The competitive environment within the cryptocurrency sector has also changed markedly since 2017. Back then, XRP stood out as one of the few large-cap altcoins with a strong payments-focused narrative. Today, however, it faces stiff competition. Other prominent cryptocurrencies like Ether, Solana, and Sui challenge its position. Additionally, an expanding stablecoin market now caters to cross-border payment solutions. These rivals introduce advanced technology and have broadened the market, creating additional challenges for XRP. Some technical analysts highlight chart patterns reminiscent of 2017, with speculative price targets reaching $20. However, current market conditions indicate that replicating XRP’s extraordinary past gains is unlikely. Reduced investor confidence, weak performance against Bitcoin, and increased competition create a difficult environment. The market today is far removed from the conditions that drove XRP’s historic rally. According to CoinMarketCap on September 4, XRP (XRP) was trading at $2.821 at 15:15 UTC, with its 24-hour trading volume down by 1.806%.