Bernstein Predicts $10T Prediction Market Boom by 2035

- Bernstein forecasts global prediction market trading volume to reach $10 trillion by 2035 - Financial contracts expected to become the dominant category, overtaking sports On June 13, 2024, The Block reported that Bernstein now expects global prediction market trading volumes to hit $10 trillion annually by 2035. The firm cited a surge in financial asset-linked contracts, including crypto, equities, and commodities. This updated projection marked a significant increase from Bernstein’s earlier estimate of $1 trillion by 2030 and reflected rapid expansion in the sector, driven by diversification and integration with financial markets. According to The Block on June 13, 2024, Bernstein estimates that financial contracts will account for 49% of total prediction market trading volume by 2035, up from a projected 39% in 2025. Meanwhile, sports contracts are predicted to decline from an anticipated 61% market share in 2025 to 38% in 2035. The report highlighted Kalshi as the industry’s leading platform, and the firm said Kalshi is currently responsible for nearly 60% of total volume, fueled by growing activity in crypto trading contracts. The Block also reported on June 13, 2024, that ongoing regulatory uncertainty continues to impact U.S. sports contracts, and Bernstein does not expect clarity until 2027–2028. The analysis assumes a $900 trillion addressable financial market in 2035 and predicts that prediction market platforms could capture 0.5% of that total. As a result, the revised forecast represents a major shift in industry scale and focus, driven by the expansion of financial market integration and contract diversification. On September 22, 2026, CoinMarketCap data showed that Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $86,303.94, with a 0.191% change.